USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program

Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program

Research and Applications
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A GIS-Based Decision Support Tool to Evaluate Land Management Policies in South Florida

Bill Labiosa

blabiosa@usgs.gov

Western Geographic Science Center

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/sFloridaPM.html

The primary objective of the project is to develop an integrated ecological and socioeconomic land use evaluation model (the ecosystem portfolio model, EPM) for DOI resource managers to use to reconcile the need to maintain the ecological health of South Florida parks and refuges with increasing pressures for higher density development in the agricultural lands outside of the Urban Development Boundary in Miami-Dade County.  The EPM, a web-enabled Geographic Information System based decision support tool, will integrate natural science, economic, and social information with user preferences to support the Park Service's participation in local land use planning, Park-related land acquisition strategies, and related regulatory decisions in Southeast Florida.  In particular, this project makes use of contributions from conservation ecology, landscape ecology, decision science, real estate economics, ecological economics, urban planning, GIS analysis, and web technologies.  The web-based EPM will contribute to improved public understanding and awareness of the importance of protecting South Florida habitats and ecosystem functions, as well as the possible externalities associated with upcoming land use decisions.

The Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) has three major components: (1) an ecological value model based on ecological criteria relevant to National Park Service and US Fish & Wildlife Service resource management and species protection mandates; (2) a real estate market-based land value model sensitive to relevant land use/cover attributes indicative of conservation and development decisions; and (3) a set of socioeconomic indicators sensitive to land use/cover changes relevant to regional environmental and ecological planning.  The current version is implemented for Miami-Dade County, with the protection of ecological values in the lands between the Everglades and Biscayne National Parks as the focus.   The first two components have been implemented in the GIS web-enabled prototype interface and the third component is being developed in draft form in FY08 in consultation with the Florida Atlantic University Dept of Urban and Regional Planning.  An example of user-weighted ecological criteria is shown below (fig. 1), along with the an example of evaluation results (fig. 2).

Figure 1. Ecological criteria weights allow users (Park Service staff) to reflect their regional priorities for supporting Park mandates.

Figure 2. An example of ecological value model output.

Assessment of Wildfire Related Hazards on Human and Ecological Communities: A demonstration project in the Front Range of Colorado

Michael Hutt

mehutt@usgs.gov

Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center

http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov

The goal of this activity is to address the needs of Federal, State and local agencies to manage wildland fires and their associated hazards, and to mitigate impacts on people, property, and natural resources by designing monitoring strategies, providing assistance and tools for restoration, and addressing other multi-agency research priorities. The USGS Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center (RMGSC) will focus efforts on the demonstration project area contained within the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) zone along the Front Range of Colorado, specifically in Grand County, Colorado. Efforts will focus on the inventory and assessment of the current state of the ecosystem, including fire fuels, tree mortality due to insect infestation, susceptibility to erosion and other post-fire affects, and distribution of the WUI and other values at risk.

Scientific investigations linking patterns and rates of landscape and land-surface changes to fundamental ecological, biological, physical, chemical, and hydrologic processes and factors are planned.  Included in these analysis  will be fire-fuel assessment methods, fire-prediction models, debris-flow models, hill-slope erosion models, stream-channel routing models, and dynamic reservoir models to identify pre-fire hazards  and evaluate the associated post-fire risks including potential flooding, erosion, debris flows, sediment transport and deposition, and water-quality impacts to streams, lakes, and reservoirs. Specific work will be performed to investigate the use of the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool to model runoff, erosion, water quality and landscape change assessments.  And finally, land planning scenarios of future build-out projections, identified by urban growth models, will be investigated.

Biological Applications Drought and Phenology

James Verdin

verdin@usgs.gov

Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/Drought_Monitoring/viewer.php

Drought and phenology are dynamic landscape phenomena controlled by variations in environmental conditions, especially climate.  Remote sensing observations from satellite-borne sensors offer one of the only synoptic approaches for regional and national study of drought and vegetation phenology. 

Now that there is a sufficient historical time series (from 1989 to present), we can study seasonal and interannual vegetation dynamics across the conterminous United States.  
Current monitoring research includes the development, application, and evaluation of algorithms to extract land surface phenologic measurements (such as the timing of landscape green-up, maturity, and senescence) from moderate spatial resolution/high temporal resolution satellite imagery provided by daily polar orbiters.  We calculate key phenologic metrics (that is, measurements) annually for each square kilometer. Figure 1 shows the timing for the start of the growing season calculated for 2007. 

One primary application for the phenological metrics is drought monitoring.  Satellite remote sensing is a vital tool for near-real time monitoring of drought conditions especially in areas that are remote and have limited in situ climate information sources.  In a partnership with the National Drought Mitigation Center, we have developed a methodology for modeling vegetation stress due to drought across the conterminous United States in near-real time called the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI).  VegDRI models integrate traditional climate-based drought indicators and satellite-derived vegetation index metrics with other biophysical information to produce a 1-km map of drought conditions that can be produced in near-real time.  In the summer of 2007, VegDRI models were calculated for 15 states in the central United States.  In 2008, the study area will be expanded to cover 22 states.

In order to improve VegDRI models to differentiate areas that receive supplemental water, we developed a current map of irrigated areas in the United States.  Figure 2 shows the distribution of irrigated areas as calculated from a model that incorporates county irrigated area statistics from the 2002 Census of Agriculture, land cover information, and phenologic metrics (for example, the annual peak) calculated from 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite data.

Figure 1. The start of the growing season in 2007 calculated from time-series Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data.

Figure 2. Irrigated areas calculated from 2002 Census of Agriculture statistics, land cover, and time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time-series satellite data.

Dynamic Integration of Debris Flow Outlooks into the Natural Hazards Support System (NHSS)

Jill Cress

jjcress@usgs.gov

Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center

http://nhss.cr.usgs.gov/

A major component of the USGS Southern California Multi-Hazards Initiative is the hazard - Wildland Fire and Debris Flow. As a contribution to that component, the USGS Landslide Hazards Program started implementation in October 2006 of a prototype effort in Southern California to generate debris flow warnings. The Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, in coordination with the Landslides Program, has developed a process to automatically add these warnings of potential danger, or "outlooks," into the internet-based Natural Hazards Support System (NHSS). The ready availability of these "outlooks" contributes, through improved understanding and effective mitigation, to reducing the loss of life and property from landslide hazards.

NHSS zoomed into the Debris Flow Outlooks for Southern California.

Ecosystems Development, Dissemination, and Applications

Jill Cress

jjcress@usgs.gov

Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center

http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/gitan

Ecosystem management is a strategy for the integrated management of land, water, and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. A prerequisite to ecosystem management is an understanding of the types, locations and conditions of the ecosystems. And in order to achieve this understanding land managers and scientists must have easy access to standardized ecosystems data and information.

To address this need, the USGS Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center (RMGSC) has embarked on the delineation, classification, and validation of ecosystems at a scale that is appropriate for ecosystems management and the development of a web-enabled system for the access and dissemination of  ecosystem data.

One of the primary objectives of this project is to establish a methodology for the creation of the national and global ecosystem products and then implement this process for the creation of ecosystem products for the contiguous United States. These standardized ecosystems will be useful for a variety of resource management and ecosystem monitoring and conservation applications. This creation of national standardized ecosystems will also contribute to one of the major tasks of the intergovernmental GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) process - the development of a robust, standardized global ecosystems classification and map.

In addition, this project will support the continued development of a system to facilitate the viewing, analysis, modeling, and dissemination of both ecosystems data and associated information. Called the Global Data Toolset (GDT), this system will include the tools required to access and manage a rich national and global spatial database which will support ecological mapping at scales ranging from local to global. Advanced tools will also be developed to support the delivery of these information resources to both scientists and the public. This system will be a key to the easy use and application of a wide-range of ecosystems data, information, and applications. The combination of ecosystems data and with an advanced toolset will provide invaluable support to a wide-range of ecosystem applications, and contribute to the establishment of conservation partnerships to commence spatially explicit valuation of ecosystem goods and services.

Ecosystems Methodology

Fire Danger Monitoring

Jeff Eidenshink

eidenshink@usgs.gov

Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

http://eros.usgs.gov

Monitoring fire danger or the potential for wildfire is a national effort of the federal, state and local fire managers. At the national level daily satellite observations are compiled to monitor that status of the vegetation condition. The satellite observations allow direct observation of vegetation condition and change over time, spatially. The GAM program focus on landscape monitoring and fire science has fostered an interagency approach that integrates remote sensing-based monitoring of vegetation condition with weather information and other model results to predict fire danger conditions. 

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a 18-year time series of vegetation condition information for the conterminous United States and Alaska using 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The AVHRR data have been processed using consistent methods that account for radiometric variability due to calibration uncertainty, the effects of the atmosphere on surface radiometric measurements obtained from wide field-of-view observations, and the geometric  registration accuracy. The time series consists of weekly and biweekly maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites.

In FY 2008, scientists from the USGS Geography Discipline, working with an interagency team of researchers, are refining and validating a model to predict the probability of a fire becoming large. The 18-years time series of satellite observations is used to measure the vegetation condition information and improve the sensitivity to changes affecting fire potential. The effort combines vegetation condition information, daily weather conditions, historical fire occurrence data in a model to first compute the fire potential index (FPI) and then to determine the probability of a fire becoming large. It is anticipated that including live fuel (trees, shrubs, grass) condition with dead fuel moisture will improve the predictability of large fires. In order to validate this methodology we will compare at least three years of FPI and the standard National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Energy Release Component (ERC) index against large fire occurrence. Analysis of each index individually and in combination will be performed.

Also FY 2008, we intend to complete the transition to MODIS-Aqua data. We will produce rolling weekly and biweekly maximum NDVI composites using MODIS-Aqua data. We will transfer the results of this research to our partners within the U.S. Forest Service and the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). Much of the fire danger information used in this research has been compiled for national coverage and has been made available to USGS scientists and cooperators through an interactive web application (http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/IVM) to promote further interdisciplinary work of this nature in FY 2008.

Geographic Science in the New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Zones

Emitt Witt

ecwitt@usgs.gov

Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center

http://mcgsc.usgs.gov

The New Madrid and the Wabash Valley seismic zones are located near the center of the continental United States.  The New Madrid seismic zone extends north along the Mississippi from Memphis, Tennessee to the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.  The Wabash Valley seismic zone extends north along the Wabash River from its confluence with the Ohio River to Terre Haute, Indiana.  Together, these zones cover an area of nearly 45,000 square miles.  St. Louis, Missouri; Memphis, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Evansville, Terre Haute, and Indianapolis, Indiana; are all located in or adjacent to these zones.

Both the New Madrid and the Wabash Valley seismic zones are capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes that could cause significant damage and interrupt the east to west flow of transportation, communication, electricity, natural gas, and oil across the central United States.  A large magnitude quake also could disrupt the movement of coal, fertilizer, or agricultural products along the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers.  Unlike earthquakes that occur in southern California, the causes and effects of earthquakes in the central and eastern United States are just beginning to be understood.  In addition, earthquakes in the central and eastern United States tend to affect a much larger area. Consequently, regional collaboration between Federal, State, local and academic partners is essential to coordinate planning and responses.

The objectives of this study are to: 
1) Conduct geographic research that complements the geologic research that is ongoing in both the New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Zones, 
2) Conduct regional workshops and conference that bring together government, non-government, and academic researchers and emergency planning and first response agencies to define the data and information needs for the region, and
3) Develop a system that can be used to gather data about the seismic zone to better understand the causes of earthquakes, and to be better prepared to respond to them.

Geography Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative

Tom Owens

tom_owens@usgs.gov

Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center

http://www.blm.gov/wo/st/en/info/newsroom/2007/february/healthy_lands_intiative.html

Wyoming encompasses some of the highest-quality wildlife habitat in the Intermountain West. Lands and waters in Southwest Wyoming offer some of the country's most sought-after recreational opportunities.  At the same time, this region is an active source of natural gas. With approximately 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas used annually in the U.S., the estimated 83 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas in Southwest Wyoming will continue to account for one of the largest potential sources of natural gas in the U.S. To ensure Southwest Wyoming's wildlife and habitat remain viable in areas facing development pressure, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and the Wyoming Game and Fish Department have proposed the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI).

The USGS will provide multidisciplinary scientific and technical support to the WLCI and advance scientific understanding of Southwest Wyoming's ecosystems.  The Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center is participating in this effort by 1) participating and providing leadership in the inventory and monitoring  effort, 2) leading the conceptual modeling effort to initiate the I&M work and 3) studying rapid land use change and ecosystem consequences in SW Wyoming. This work will produce a workshop to bring together WLCI partners to initiate the conceptual modeling and I&M work, reports on the conceptual models and an I&M plan that will guide these efforts.

Figure showing the WLCI project boundaries and major land managers in the region.

Geospatial Hydroclimatology

James Verdin

verdin@usgs.gov

Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

http://www.drought.gov

Although climatology has long been an important field of geography, the field has seen only limited application of geographic methods of spatial analysis.  The objective of this project is the development of geographic methods to characterize actual or potential land change associated with hydroclimatological hazards - such as droughts, floods, and landslides. These hazards often present dire consequences to large populations by threatening human livelihoods and critical natural ecosystems. Identification of the drivers of these land changes, which may be natural or anthropogenic processes, is a priority.   

Through the geographic research conducted in this project, geographic methods and products will be created to: (1) communicate the locations and characteristics of present or expected drought, flood, or related hazard; (2) contribute to a national toolbox of metrics and models for decision support related to land change; and (3) inform decision makers having responsibility for early warning, contingency planning, and disaster response.  

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is the focus of significant effort in FY08.  The task lead has been assigned to serve as Deputy Director of the NIDIS Program Office in Boulder, Colorado, at the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory.  Representative activities include the organization of a knowledge assessment workshop on remote sensing contributions to drought monitoring (February 2008); promoting the development of the NIDIS Drought Portal (www.drought.gov); and organizing the launch of NIDIS pilots in the Colorado River Basin and the Southeastern United States.  

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) also figures prominently in the plan for FY08.  USGS/EROS has supported USAID's FEWS NET on a reimbursable basis since the mid-1980s.  The Geospatial Hydroclimatology task provides scientific leadership and oversight to USGS FEWS NET activities.  USGS provides assistance in developing operational applications of remote sensing and modeling for seasonal monitoring, harvest assessment, and identification of long-term climate trends.  This supports FEWS NET objectives for providing early warning of food insecurity, and building capacity in technical decision support in food-insecure regions of the world.  USGS also maintains the FEWS NET geographic data archive, including tabular, vector, and raster datasets.  In partnership with the Geography Department of the University of California, Santa Barbara, a team of developing country regional scientists is maintained with offices in Guatemala City, Guatemala; Niamey, Niger; Nairobi, Kenya; and Gaborone, Botswana.  These scientists advise FEWS NET food security analysts on the best use of available monitoring and forecasting information from USGS, NOAA, and NASA.  FY08 will see continued development and application of remote sensing methods for estimating cropped area and crop production in food insecure countries of Africa.

Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) Great Basin

Tom Owens Alicia Torregrosa

tom_owens@usgs.gov

Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center

http://fresc.usgs.gov//products/papers/GBILM/DraftPlan.pdf

The Great Basin is a vast mosaic of diverse shrublands, grasslands, and montane forests incised with rare but critical riparian corridors and aquatic resources. The Great Basin includes over 86 million acres of public land in 5 western states (CA, ID, NV, OR, UT).
The majority of these public lands are managed by DOI agencies, primarily the nearly 70 million acres managed by the Bureau of Land Management. These agencies need to understand the impact landscape-scale stressors and drivers have on their lands and resources. Some of these stressors include rapidly growing human populations and associated expanding urban fronts, agriculture and ranching, climate change, and invasive species. 

The USGS has responded to this science need with the Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring (GBILM) Pilot. The purpose of the GBILM is to develop a monitoring strategy to measure, evaluate, and assess the key indicators of landscape change. Four pilot projects have begun to develop monitoring strategies addressing different stressors in the Great Basin: riparian and phreatophyte responses to water withdrawals, the impacts of land use and management, the impacts of invasive species- fire regime interactions, and monitoring land cover and road change through remote sensing.

Geography is supporting this pilot by providing leadership and support in many aspects of the GBILM Pilot including overall project leadership, conceptual modeling, driver and stressor prioritization, and remote sensing.

Figure showing the GBILM project boundaries and the region's topography.

Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) Lower Mississippi Valley

David Shaver Stephen Faulkner

dshaver@usgs.gov

Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center

http://mcgsc.usgs.gov

The USGS established the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV) as one of four pilot areas to develop a framework for understanding the impact of natural processes, land-use change, climate change, and natural resource management activities on environmental drivers and ecosystem goods and services. The LMV is the largest floodplain in the U.S.  It extends south along the Mississippi River from southern Missouri and Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico encompassing 10 million hectares in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.  Its contributing drainage basin includes 40 percent of the continental United States. The mosaic of floodplain topographic features, including ridges, swales, meander belts, and back swamp areas, sustains habitat for hemispherically significant migratory birds and endangered species.

Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) Prairie Potholes

Michael Starbuck Chip Euliss

mstarbuck@usgs.gov

Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center

http://mcgsc.usgs.gov

The Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) Prairie Pilot is one of four pilots initiated as part of a FY2006 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Thrust to achieve a comprehensive natural resource monitoring strategy that supports integrated landscape management of natural resources. The goal of each regional pilot is to develop an operational framework to observe, monitor, understand, and predict landscape change and implications on natural resources and ecosystem processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales. FY08 tasks to be performed by staff at the Mid Continent Geographic Science Center include providing continued coordination among Geography investigators, analysis of upland land cover change over time in selected study areas, and assistance in the development of predictive models to simulate various ecosystem services in the region under the impacts of land use change, policy, and climate change.

Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) Puget Sound

Susan Benjamin

sbenjamin@usgs.gov

Western Geographic Science Center

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/

Deteriorating environmental quality of the waters of Puget Sound has raised alarms at private, local, state, and federal levels. USGS is working with many partners in the Sound to understand the effects that a changing landscape has had on the second largest estuary in the US. Determining the impacts of natural processes and human actions, predicting their effects, and developing models and tools to evaluate different actions as expressed through changes in the landscape are critical to ensuring a sustainable future for all, both ecologically and economically. In the Puget Sound Integrated Landscape Monitoring Project (PS-ILM), a conceptual model of the landscape is being developed to describe the components of the landscape (structure) and the interactions among those components (function). This conceptual model will also be used to develop an interdisciplinary approach needed to measure and evaluate potential indicators of landscape condition and change at scales necessary to inform management issues and practices.  Providing this information to partners with regulatory and advisory responsibility may help in the process of restoring the environmental health of Puget Sound.

An interdisciplinary team has been formed to work on this project with participants from WGSC, RMGSC, FRESC, WR CMG, WR GIO, WA WSC, Northwest Area staff, and Oregon State University.  We work closely with the multidisciplinary Coastal Habitats in Puget Sound (CHIPS) project.

ILM Puget Sound Conceptual Model

Lake Change in Alaska

Benjamin Jones

bjones@usgs.gov

Alaska Geographic Science Center

http://alaska.usgs.gov

Recent studies have reported that lakes in Alaska are drying up. However, these studies have occurred over small sample areas within Alaska. It is not presently known: how widespread the problem is; if lake drying is related to any specific region; the rate of drying; or the type of lakes that are involved. Thus, the objective of this study is to assess more thoroughly the extent of lake drying across Alaska using multi-scale imagery obtained over the last 55 years.

This study will use a number of different aerial and satellite imagery sources to assess the extent, rate, and type of lake drying occurring across Alaska. The project was originally designed to perform a statistically valid sample, similar to the GAM Status and Trends methodology, of lakes across Alaska to determine the extent of lake drying between different temporal periods. However, in depth analysis revealed that the sampling scheme was not a beneficial methodology to employ due to the spatial variability observed in lake changes.  Therefore, it was considered appropriate to conduct an initial wall-to-wall, statewide lake change assessment based on Landsat TM and ETM imagery.  In FY08, data acquisition and analysis will continue in order to describe lake change from circa-1985 to circa-2000. 

In the future, we will attempt to further our knowledge of lake change using aerial photos (circa 1950s, 1970-80s) and Landsat (1970's to 1980s). Other types of high resolution satellite imagery would also be reviewed in order to determine the utility of using Landsat data to assess lakes smaller than the nominal Landsat pixel size.

Landsat ETM imagery from a section of the Innoko National Wildlife Refuge reveals that there are substantial differences in measured surface water area due to seasonal and yearly variation.

Subset of lake change detection conducted for portions of the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge from 1985 to 2002.

Land Cover Trends

William Acevedo

wacevedo@usgs.gov

National Project

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/internal/DWTrends/main/home.html

Land use and land cover change is among the most noticeable forms of global environmental change. Natural and human-induced modifications of the land, affect climate, ecosystems, availability of goods and services, economic welfare, and human health. Improved information and understanding of the broad consequences of land cover change are essential in order to mitigate and manage its impact on human and environmental systems.

With the support of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), researchers from six USGS Geographic Science Centers across the country are assessing the rates, trends, and causes of land cover change from 1973 to 2000 for 84 ecological regions, or ecoregions, in the conterminous United States. For each ecoregion, the scientists are determining the variability of land cover change across space and time. They are also documenting the regional driving forces of change such as changes in population or consumption that result in different land resource demands.

The project has 3 major research objectives: (1) document the types, rates, and temporal variability of land cover change on a region-by-region basis over the past 30 years, (2) document the regional driving forces of land cover change, and (3) synthesize individual ecoregion investigations into a national assessment of land cover change.

The rates of land use and land cover change are estimated using a stratified random sampling of 10-km by 10-km blocks allocated within an ecoregion-based spatial framework. The Land Cover Trends project uses the EPA defined Level III ecoregions as the spatial framework for national assessment and reporting. Ecoregions are designed to serve as a spatial framework for environmental resource management and denote areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of environmental conditions, natural communities, and plant species. We use historical Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) satellite images, along with historical aerial photographs, to interpret land cover change for each sample block on five separate dates (nominally 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000). We then use the sample block land cover data to analyze the spatial, temporal, and sectoral dimensions of change. We identify and document the forces driving land cover change using field observation, socio-economic data analysis, and an analysis of published reports.

Researchers will use the results of these ecoregional investigations to assess local, regional, and national consequences of land cover change throughout the contiguous United States.

Land Cover Trends is producing a series of land cover status and trends reports. The Eastern U.S. will be published in 2008, the Great Plains will be published in early 2009, and the others in 2010.

Landscape monitoring protocols using satellite, airborne, and ground-based instrumentation

Miguel Velasco

mvelasco@usgs.gov

Southwest Geographic Science Office

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov

The relatively low spatial resolution of most satellite imaging systems can be a major obstacle in using them for landscape monitoring, especially when monitoring local scale parameters. The 30-meter resolution of Landsat TM can be useful for monitoring some regional scale parameters; however, this resolution can be too low for some of the landscape monitoring requirements within federal lands.  The main focus of this project is on the use of imaging systems that have high to very-high spatial resolutions.

We are investigating the use of high resolution satellite imaging to be a first order monitoring tool of local landscapes.  The Quickbird satellite collects four multi-spectral bands that have an approximate resolution of 2.4 meters and a panchromatic band with 0.6 meter pixels.  We are digitally merging the multi-spectral and panchromatic data sets (Chavez and others, 1991) which are being analyzed and used to document their capabilities and limitations for local to regional scale landscape monitoring.  Quickbird images are limited in spectral resolution compared to Landsat and hyper-spectral imaging systems.  However, we are investigating what physical and biological landscape parameters can be detected and monitored using its relatively low spectral resolution but relatively high spatial resolutions.  This is important because often low-spectral and high-spatial resolution image data are more readily available and less costly than high-spectral and high-spatial resolution data sets.

When monitoring very-local scale and critical habitats the relatively high spatial resolution of satellite imaging may not be sufficient.  The temporal resolution and timing of satellite imaging can also be a problem.  We are investigating the use of very-high resolution airborne digital imaging to monitor these areas.  We are using an airborne digital imaging (camera) system we have developed to collect very-high resolution images (3 to 6 inch resolution) along several long transects within Canyonlands National Park, BLM land adjacent to the park, and the Cibola National Wildlife Refuge.  Part of our investigation is to see if such high spatial resolution airborne image data could not only be used to monitor critical habitats, but also serve as ground-truth for satellite images. 

A major advantage of satellite and airborne images is that they contain spatial coverage that is impossible to achieve with ground-based instrumentation. However, a disadvantage with satellite and airborne imaging when compared to ground-based instruments is the temporal resolution at which data can be collected.  There are critical parameters that are difficult to measure which require ground-based instrumentation.  We have developed an automatic digital landscape imaging system that can be deployed and operated ?in the field' on a long-term basis (i.e., months to years).  This system can be programmed to take photographs on a daily basis at specific times or triggered by a given event (e.g., when the wind or amount of rain fall gets above a pre-selected threshold).   We have successfully used this system in the Mojave Desert and Hawaii and are currently selecting a site within one of our study areas.  We will be collecting a photograph every day in order to document landscape characteristics at a high spatial and temporal resolution.  The possibility exists that these images may be used as ground-truth for phenology studies that are being conducted using MODIS satellite images.

Figure 1: Digital camera station in the Mojave Desert triggered by high wind events to capture dust emission

Figure 2: Detecting a late summer bloom of invasive cheatgrass on BLM land in southeastern Utah.

Modeling Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics, Climate, and Management

Larry L Tieszen

tieszen@usgs.gov

Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

http://erg.usgs.gov/

Understanding the impacts of land surface processes and climate on atmospheric carbon budgets has been a very important and challenging Earth science endeavor with significant and profound implications for the dynamics of Earth's climate system, ecosystem sustainability, and human well being. A modeling system which quantifies the dynamics of carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere and its major controlling processes can help identify the most effective ways and places for sequestering atmospheric carbon on land to reduce the risk of global warming. This project encompasses several major interwoven research areas that emphasize the integration of remote sensing, modeling, and ground observations.

We model contemporary changes of carbon stocks and fluxes and investigate the driving forces of the changes.  Previous studies indicate that the U.S. terrestrial ecosystems might contribute a significant portion to the global carbon sink. However, the magnitude, the locations, underlying mechanisms, and historical and future trends of this terrestrial carbon sink are highly uncertain. The impacts of land use and cover change on the spatial-temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks have never been consistently studied at national to regional scales.  We emphasize documented land cover trends project and management impacts in the U.S. and Sahel.  The Department of the Interior (DOI) manages nearly 25 percent of the Nation's lands with little systematic research on the status of ecosystems or carbon stocks and fluxes.  This is a critical deficiency in our national understanding and adaptive management of DOI land. We now quantify and model the status and trends of ecosystem behaviors and carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and assess the impacts of land management actions and climate change on ecosystem dynamics.  

The grassland ecosystem in the Great Plains covers about 1.5 million km2 also with uncertain carbon budgets. Quantifying and understanding carbon fluxes across the grasslands under the impacts of different management practices and climate change are essential for developing regional, national, and global carbon budgets and how these might be impacted as biofuels for energy are emphasized. This provides key information for developing adaptive land management strategies for the region. We use a remote sensing-driven modeling approach to map carbon fluxes in grassland ecosystems, first in the northern Great Plains. We map spatially explicit carbon fluxes through integrated spatial databases and remotely sensed extrapolations of in-situ flux tower data provided by Ameriflux and Agriflux scientists. This high resolution but regional assessments will 1) assess and monitor the spatial and temporal trends of Net Ecosystem Exchange of carbon, identify carbon sink and source areas, and improve the understanding of ecosystems dynamics, 2) quantify the impacts of climate change and management on carbon fluxes, 3) determine important transitions and drivers that affect grassland carbon fluxes, and 4) provide valuable regional information for process-based biogeochemical modeling efforts.

The project responds to requests from the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID) and other international donors to apply our unique remote sensing resources and modeling capabilities to support ecosystem monitoring and climate change studies in developing countries.  We quantify the impact of deforestation and unsustainable agricultural practices on carbon losses in Ghana where deforestation and carbon losses are large.  Ghana, however, will not be impacted as strongly by simulated climate change as Senegal where crop production is severely reduced.  The project also assists the development of spatial data and distribution services in South America with funding from international banks.  

The West African Sahel is an especially significant area for the study of climate change, because it is a transition zone that acts like a barometer of global climate change.  We will continue to monitor and map land cover changes and trends in biodiversity across this large region in collaboration with the regional remote sensing centers, West African environmental agencies, and the USAID.  Results provide quantitative trends in land cover changes which are critical for modeling future scenarios of land cover, carbon sequestration, and climate change.  We identify biodiverse "hot spots" for future protection, provide training to exploit the vast satellite image record of West Africa, and help national institutions monitor and manage land resources.  As they face the serious challenges of increasing food production while protecting the environment from degradation, the results of this project will help decision-makers understand environmental changes and their implications for human well being.

Multi Hazards Demonstration Project

Mara Tongue

mtongue@usgs.gov

National Project

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) in Southern California to demonstrate how hazards science can be used to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California. The project will assist the region's communities in reducing their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community's needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results.  The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include earthquakes, floods, wildfires, landslides, tsunamis, and coastal erosion. 

The project has identified four priority areas for future research to address. They are: 1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, 2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, 3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and 4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis.  

Project Organization
Four working groups have been identified; 1) Fire and Debris Flows (FDF), 2) Winter Storm Events (WS), 3) Integration and Implementation Interface, and  4) Earthquakes and Tsunamis (ET), to carry out research in support of the project objectives. 

Fire and Debris Flow (Vivian Queija, Cindy Wallace, Jeff Eidenshink, Sue Greenlee, Jill Cress) - This working group has the task of identifying vegetative type, fuel type, fire/debris flow impact, severity, and post evaluation using new, innovative methods and prototypes.

Winter Storms (Jim Verdin) - The Geography Discipline is working on generating inundation maps from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and making a new version of the FEMA flood insurance map using the original hydro data.

Integration and Implementation Interface (Rich Bernknopf, Anne Wein, Paul Hearn, Dave Hester, Kristi Sayler) - This working group has the task of creating the first major public product of MHDP,  a scenario in which a southern San Andreas earthquake triggers landslides, wildfires and a dam failure. More than 200 people and 50 organizations including NGOs, government agencies, lifeline service providers, academics, professional organizations, and others are contributing.

The Geography Discipline is not participating in the Earthquake and Tsunamis working group.

Partners 
Office of Emergency Services, City of Los Angeles, SCEC, EERI, PEER, FEMA, California Geological Survey, California Seismic Safety Commission, Counties of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Ventura and Orange, Office of Homeland Security, Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles County and City Fire Departments, Caltech, Art Center College of Design, UCLA School of Public Health, ABS Consulting, NBC Universal, Los Angeles Unified School District, Southern California Association of Governments, Metropolitan Transportation Authority, California Dept of Transportation, Metropolitan Water District, Southern California Edison, California Utilities Emergency Association, Homeland Security Advisory Council, American Red Cross

Example of prototype for scenario development

Ozarks Studies

Jeffrey Spooner

jspooner@usgs.gov

Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center

http://mcgsc.usgs.gov

One of the greatest assets of the Ozark region of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas is the abundance of fresh water and clear streams.  Vast areas of the Ozarks are predominately drained by karst aquifers and the base flow of many rivers is provided by spring water.  The openness of a karst aquifer typically provides little subsurface filtration of contaminants that enter the system through sinkholes and other solution features.  In order to preserve water quality in karst regions, it is necessary to focus efforts on recharge areas - specifically those locations providing point recharge such as sinkholes and losing streams.  Furthermore, to evaluate and quantify the role of natural ecosystems in water quality and flooding, it is necessary to measure the land cover and use characteristics in the recharge areas and at the recharge points and how they have evolved over time.  The objective of this project is to produce an Ozarks wide model of landscape trends as they relate water quality and quantity, and quality of life in the Ozark region.  During fiscal year 2008, we will focus on two research topics: the delineation of Ozarks karst features using a variety of digital geospatial data; and the effects of land use change on water quality in the lakes of the Upper White River basin of southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas.

Phenology Studies

Bradley Reed

reed@usgs.gov

Southwest Geographic Science Office

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/

Land surface phenology is described as the study of the seasonal vegetation activity of land surfaces observed from remote sensing.  While the observed patterns are tightly related to biological phenomena, land surface phenology is distinct from traditional definitions of phenology as it cannot capture plant-specific events (e.g., budbreak, flowering, etc.), but is rather the expression of phenology at a landscape scale.  This project investigates several aspects of land surface phenology, including characterizing the phenology of difficult to understand environments (e.g., deserts), investigating the impact of land use on land surface phenology, and participating in the nascent National Phenology Network (NPN).

The growth cycle of vegetation in many types of environments (e.g., desert, boreal) do not fit a typical annual growth model (i.e., unimodal) of mesic vegetation types.  Desert vegetation, especially winter annuals, is characterized by opportunistic growth spurts driven by episodic moisture availability.  Characterizing desert vegetation dynamics over large areas using satellite data requires a specialized methodology that differs from conventional approaches.  And in addition to the derivation of standard phenology characteristics such as timing and duration of growing period, desert vegetation dynamics should also be described by other metrics that are important in this environment, such as the magnitude of growth and the length of time since the last growing period.  During some growth periods, the amount of green vegetation is relatively small, so is sometimes not detected by standard phenology analysis techniques.  Therefore, new approaches with higher temporal precision and utilizing spectral data in addition to vegetation indices, are required to adequately capture growing periods.

Changing land use has an important impact on surface dynamics that subsequently affect land/atmosphere interactions (e.g., albedo, evapotranspiration, carbon and water fluxes).  The timing of many of these interactions is also significantly changed as one land use is replaced by another.  For example, a forest may be replaced by an agricultural crop that has a significantly shorter growing period.  Analysis of time-series satellite data over a period of time provides objective estimates of growing season characteristics that, combined with detailed land use change information, can provide information on one consequence of land cover change.  This aspect of the project investigates the impact of changing land use in the conterminous US since 1990.

Predicting Environmental Consequences of Urban Development on the US Mexico Border

Laura M Norman

lnorman@usgs.gov

Southwest Geographic Science Office

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/

The sister cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales, suffer from environmental problems attributed to decades of growth (fig. 1). In this project, results derived from coupling urban growth and nonpoint source pollution models in a virtual environment will be used to make estimates of current, future, and hypothetical conditions using geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and a watershed approach.

Flooding affects low-lying areas throughout Ambos Nogales, where many major streets follow the course of natural arroyos; and in the hills, landslides caused by rushing waters damages homes and streets (fig. 2).  Most recently, the twin city area has experienced monsoonal flood events that the area's infrastructure is not equipped to handle (http://www.nogalesinternational.com/articles/2007/07/31/news/news1.txt).  Efforts are underway to identify flood control measures by means of sediment ponds, check dams, and other response mechanisms to better control flooding and runoff.  Local governments are trying to get estimates of volume of runoff for better management.

We plan to assess the impact of land-use change by using hydrological models and also predict runoff volumes and peaks.  We will also apply models to predict the effects of various artificial features such as urban developments, small detention reservoirs, or lined channels on flood hydrographs and sediment yield.

Figure 1: Aerial photograph of Nogales, Ariz., the United States-Mexican border (diagonally from right to left), and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico (lower right). Photograph by Pamela L. Nagler, 2004.

Figure 2: Floodwaters flow down near the Marisposa port of entry (Ibarra, Ignacio, 2003. Nogales, Sonora, The Arizona Daily Star Tuesday, July 29, 2003).

Societal Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

Nathan Wood

nwood@usgs.gov

Western Geographic Science Center

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/tsunamis.html

A fundamental element of the USGS mission is to provide reliable scientific information to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters. Consequently, a great deal of USGS research focuses on describing, documenting, and understanding natural hazards, including long-term monitoring and forecasting, short-term prediction, and real-time crisis monitoring. Minimizing future loss of life and property damage, however, is a complex process that involves not only an understanding of the regional hazards but also of societal vulnerability to these threats, defined as the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience of coupled human-environmental systems. This vulnerability is a function of existing land-use and landcover patterns and trends, resource management policies, demographic and economic patterns, and societal preparedness, response and recovery decisions. The risk of future disasters is a function of the potential for extreme events and of how communities use hazard-prone land. The integration of natural hazards and societal vulnerability information provides a basis for realistic risk management.

This project focuses on the development of community vulnerability assessments and models that (1) are easy to understand by emergency-services and land-use practitioners, (2) examine societal vulnerability within the context of system exposure, sensitivity and resilience, and (3) result in realistic and scientifically grounded assessments. Using a multidisciplinary, place-based approach, this project is examining societal vulnerability issues through (1) literature reviews, (2) partnership development with local, state, and federal land-use and emergency-services practitioners to ensure research results are well-grounded in practitioner needs, (3) geospatial indicator and model development using GIS tools, statistical analytical methods and community workshops, and (4) case studies on various natural hazards, including tsunamis, volcanoes, hurricane storm surge, sea level rise, and coastal erosion. In addition, research focuses on determining the utility of land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (Landsat TM) in assessing variations in urban footprints in relation to predicted hazard zones. End products from this project include GIS-based indicators and regional assessments of societal vulnerability to various natural hazards.
 
One area of research under this project focuses on understanding community vulnerability to tsunamis. Although high-hazard areas have been identified for tsunamis in many coastal States, far less is known on potential impacts of these tsunamis to coastal communities. State-level assessments comparing community exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis have been completed for Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Tsunami-related research also includes the use of community-based collaborative processes for developing post-disaster recovery plans, the use of socioeconomic indicators to characterize physical model uncertainties, and the use of dasymetric mapping for evaluating tsunami-evacuation potential. Tsunami-related research is being done in collaboration with representatives of Hawaii State Civil Defense, Oregon Emergency Management, and the Emergency Management Division of the Washington Military Department. Research results are being incorporated into State Hazard Mitigation plans in the various States.

A second area of research focuses on understanding current and future community vulnerability to the joint threats of hurricane storm surge, sea level rise due to climate change, and increasing urbanization of low-lying portions of Sarasota County, Florida. This task seeks to improve our understanding of community vulnerability to storm-surge hazards and to develop a collaborative methodology that integrates scientific understanding of storm-surge potential, coastal-change hazards and sea-level rise with value-based human dynamics of population growth and development.

A third area of research focuses on understanding community vulnerability in Pierce County, Washington to lahar hazards related to Mount Rainier. Although a great deal of volcanic-hazard assessment research related to Mount Rainier has been conducted, no vulnerability assessment research has been undertaken. Research on community vulnerability to Mount Rainier hazards, specifically lahars, is needed if decision makers in Puget Sound communities are to fully incorporate USGS hazards research into their city and county hazard mitigation planning processes.

The cities of Manzanita (top) and Seaside (bottom) on the Oregon coast are both in the State-level tsunami inundation zone. (Photographs taken by Nathan Wood).

The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) Risk Assessment and Analysis for Natural Hazards

Laura Dinitz

Ldinitz@usgs.gov

Western Geographic Science Center

http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/lupm.html

Natural hazards pose significant threats to public safety and economic well-being worldwide. As people increasingly settle in locations that are exposed to natural hazards, financial losses from natural-hazard events have been and will continue rising. State and local decision-makers and leaders face the challenge of how to plan for and allocate scarce resources to invest in protecting their communities. A sound strategy to address this issue requires integrating knowledge and techniques from multiple fields, including geology, hydrology, geography, engineering, mathematics, statistics, sociology, ecology and economics. The LUPM combines natural-hazard and socioeconomic information with the goal of enabling communities to evaluate alternative natural-hazard risk-reduction measures.

For the LUPM project, we are focused on performing two main tasks: core model development and software development. LUPM project researchers prioritize tasks according to their relative importance to model development as well as to supporting the needs of ongoing case study applications. Core model development involves deriving model equations, developing theoretical and applied techniques for risk analysis, and adapting the model as needed by particular applications. Current ongoing work includes updating the measures of model uncertainty; quantifying component dependencies such as spatial autocorrelation of failures; analyzing different planning-time horizons; integrating the LUPM with loss-estimation tools (i.e., FEMA's HAZUS); developing a natural-hazards risk-assessment framework that incorporates multiple primary natural hazards and/or conditional (triggered secondary) hazards over a range of hazard magnitudes/severities compatible with key elements of decision making; and exploring standard and innovative approaches to vulnerability assessment. Experience from the Multi-hazard Demonstration Project (MHDP) earthquake scenario is contributing to the conceptualization and estimation of societal vulnerability. Case studies are ongoing for multiple hazards in southern California (MHDP) and in the municipality of Squamish, British Columbia, Canada, and for earthquakes in Memphis, Tennessee. Researchers give presentations and workshops about the LUPM and risk analysis to communities and stakeholders and present at professional meetings/conferences on geography, hazards, operations research, and modeling.

The software development task involves developing and maintaining the LUPM decision support system software and incorporating results from the core model development task. We are developing two implementations of the software to calculate the LUPM equations which are designed to work within ArcGIS desktop applications. One is an ArcGIS Model Builder tool with a framework that combines GIS data, LUPM model equations, output reports, and other modules to increase its adaptability to better and more quickly meet the needs of individual communities. The other operates as an ArcGIS tool extension. Additionally we have developed a user control version that operates independently of ArcGIS. We are working to improve programming aspects such as the performance of algorithms to process faster and better handle large datasets; reporting of model output including the interface and addition of graphics to depict scenarios; and comparison tools in the form of tables and/or graphics. We will test model results and functionality of the software, design an LUPM user-interface targeted, for now, to internal users, and complete and maintain documentation on software user instructions.

Finally, this task serves to coordinate the varying aspects of core LUPM model development, LUPM software development, and the needs of communities applying the LUPM, so that the knowledge gained in each of these areas can be incorporated into the software and applied generally. As the number and variety of LUPM-related projects increases, we strive to develop a more robust decision-support tool that will be adaptable to many individual communities.

The National Land Cover Database

Collin Homer

homer@usgs.gov

National Project

http://www.mrlc.gov

Through the efforts of the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium (a group of 11 Federal agencies), the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) has grown to represent three major land cover data releases. These benchmarks in land cover data include a 1992 conterminous U.S. land cover dataset containing one thematic layer of land cover (NLCD 1992); an updated 50-state/Puerto Rico U.S. land cover database with three thematic layers including land cover, percent imperviousness, and percent tree canopy (NLCD 2001); and an NLCD 1992/2001 retrofit land cover change product that is designed to identify real land cover change between the two eras (NLCD 1992/2001 Retrofit Land Cover Change Product). 

The NLCD 1992/2001 Retrofit Land Cover Change Product offers users a land cover change analysis between the NLCD 1992 and NLCD 2001 land cover products since, for technical reasons, direct comparison of these two data sets is not recommended for most users. The NLCD products are designed for large regional application (national, state and sub-state).  Local application at the county or city level is not advised. Planning is under way to produce a 2006 product (NLCD 2006) to update the NLCD 2001. All NLCD products are web enabled for download at the MRLC website at http://www.mrlc.gov .

The Road Indicator Project (TRIP)

Ray Watts

rwatts@usgs.gov

Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center

http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/RMGSC/scienceAgenda/l_s_a_m.htm#roads

The North American road network, the largest human construction on Earth, is a vital organ of the human economic and social "organism." Yet it is little studied for its ability to influence landscape change and ecological conditions. A rapidly growing body of literature indicates that roads impose hundreds of influences on ecosystems and watersheds. Yet few tools or methods exist for quantifying these effects.  There have previously been no national road-related indicators that would provide mechanisms for quantitative study, synthesis to large scale, indication of temporal change, and place-to-place comparison. The Road Indicator Project (TRIP) provides these and applies them to provide multiple-scale information and processes influenced by roads.

This project: (1) develops road-indicator data sets, the National Overview Road Metrics (NORM); (2) provides place-to-place comparison through Land Status and Trends reports; (3) provides indicators  for application in GAM models, and works with modelers to test and improve their utility; (4) applies road indicators in studies of ecological effects of roads; (5) applies indicators to studies of other landscape Phenomena, such as impervious surface fraction; and (6) applies road indicators in evaluations of ecological data (esp. with respect to spatial bias by road proximity).

Topographic Status and Trends including Watershed based Analysis

Susan Greenlee Dean Gesch

sgreenlee@usgs.gov

Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

http://eros.usgs.gov/

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center (EROS) Topographic Science has developed a national inventory of significant topographic changes based on seamless multitemporal elevation data and land cover data.  The detection of human geomorphic activity, as indicated by vertical changes to the land surface, is accomplished by comparing multitemporal elevation data.  As such, multidate elevation data with matching characteristics over the large study area of the conterminous United States are required.  

The need for more comprehensive information on the nature and extent of recent human geomorphic activity led to a spatial emphasis for the first ever accounting of topographic change across the United States.  Historical National Elevation Dataset (NED) data values were subtracted from the recently collected Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to determine significant topographic changes.  The National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) provided land cover information at a 30-meter resolution that matched the NED and SRTM data.  The primary types of topographic changes resulting from human geomorphic activity include surface mining, road construction, urban development, dam construction, and landfills (Figure 1).  The Topographic Change national inventory is available for viewing and download at http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/topochange/viewer.htm. Ongoing and future work on topographic change includes processing and analysis of recent high resolution elevation data over regional sites for additional monitoring.

Topographic Science has developed a national inventory of watershed basins and characteristics for major rivers of the conterminous United States.  The Elevation Derivatives for National Application (EDNA) Watershed Atlas is a framework for viewing watershed basins and characteristics, such as drainage area, elevation, slope, land cover, and population.  The hydrologically-derived watershed boundaries were created by utilizing the EDNA database to delineate the contributing area, or watershed basin, upstream from the mouth of major rivers of the conterminous United States.  The hydrologic-connectivity of EDNA's seamless derivatives was the basis for the watershed characterization model.  A total of 78 watershed basins were delineated, watershed characteristics were quantified, and an EDNA Watershed Atlas was developed.  The Watershed Atlas is available for viewing at http://edna.usgs.gov/watersheds (Figure 2). Future plans include examining change within watersheds and their potential impacts.

Figure 1. Example of the type of features detected in the topographic change inventory. In this case, surface coal mines in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.

Figure 2: The EDNA Watershed Atlas is at http://edna.usgs.gov/watersheds. Watershed characteristics are available for viewing in a standard Web browser or in a 3D environment, such as Google Earth.

Tribal Lands: Landscape Monitoring and Analysis

Barry Middleton

bmiddleton@usgs.gov

Southwest Geographic Science Office

http://arizona.usgs.gov/Flagstaff/

The 1.8 million acre San Carlos Apache Reservation northeast of Phoenix, AZ encompasses terrain covered in diverse forest, woodland, grassland and desert habitat.  Forestry, cattle ranching, and tourism help sustain the economy of the Tribe.  This vast and diverse landscape is prompting the Tribe to seek out the latest and most cost effective tools to assist them in the management of their natural resources.  Remote sensing will allow the tribe to map and monitor the reservation lands within the constraint of limited financial and personnel resources.

Tribal leaders have expressed their need for acquiring remotely sensed data products and technology to assist with ecosystem management plans and wise utilization of their resources.  Specifically, they require knowledge of historical and current changes in land cover resources; evaluation of grassland health and invasive species for better rangeland management; and monitoring of tree mortality due to bark beetle infestation for better forestry management.  Additionally, the Tribe requires training in image processing and remote sensing, to acquire the capability of producing in-house data products in the future.

Proper management of the San Carlos Tribe's grazing areas is of prime importance to the Tribe and the cattle industry on the reservation.  Therefore, creating satellite image maps that reflect the health of the tribe's primary grazing areas are a primary goal of this research.  In addition, the recent major expansion in Pine Beetle populations, and their negative impact on tree health and mortality, is quickly becoming a factor in the long term sustainability of the forest products industry at San Carlos.  The Tribe feels the development of remote sensing products and maps that provide an overview of the health of forested areas and the spread of Pine Beetle infestation on the reservation could improve the short and long term viability of their timber industry.

Imagery generated from analysis of 40 satellite image dates in 2003 highlight the health of a southern Arizona rangeland.

Vulnerability and Resilience to Coastal Hazards

Barbara Poore

bspoore@usgs.gov

Eastern Geographic Science Center

http://erg.usgs.gov

The major cause of hurricane destruction, death, and land use change worldwide is from storm surge - the high water pushed onshore by an approaching storm. In Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a storm surge of 28 feet or more destroyed thousands of homes in Mississippi and caused breaches in the levees that flooded much of New Orleans. In the U.S., a relatively quiet hurricane period from 1960-1990 coincided with a rapid growth of population and urbanized infrastructure along the coast. Much of this growth occurred without regard for potential risk from storm surge. There are now millions of people living along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the U.S. who are vulnerable to hurricanes. This is of concern because hurricanes are predicted to become increasingly intense and frequent with changes in the global climate. Thus there is a need for greater awareness on the part of local government officials and the public of the vulnerability of coastal communities to storm surge.

Vulnerability is a result of the hazards of a particular place and the likelihood that a community or a family will be harmed. The likelihood of harm to people from hurricanes is often dependent on characteristics such as personal and community wealth, race, social status, health, and age. The Vulnerability and Resilience project complements the mapping of coastal hazards by adding the dimension of social vulnerability. Maps of these characteristics can be combined with maps of physical hazards to inform decision makers of areas where people are most at risk.

Resilience - the ability of people and communities to respond to hazards and to bounce back from disaster - is another important aspect of human response and adaptation to storms. Resilience is the opposite of vulnerability. Like vulnerability, it depends on social and economic characteristics. Resilience can be increased through greater knowledge of hazardous conditions. Access to information is a key factor in increasing knowledge and promoting wise action. A further goal of this project is to understand how current USGS information products on storm surge are used by decision makers and the general public, and how these products might be improved to increase resilience.

Water Quality Best Management Practices in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Dianna Hogan

dhogan@usgs.gov

Eastern Geographic Science Center

http://erg.usgs.gov/currentscienceprojects.html#besthogan

Urban stormwater runoff carries pollutants including excess fertilizers, sediment, oil, and other toxins, and is well known to degrade the physical, biologic, and chemical health of receiving streams and downstream ecosystems.  Stormwater runoff may be directed right into area streams, or may be channeled through stormwater management systems (such as drains, gutters, and culverts) into Best Management Practices (BMPs) before infiltrating into the groundwater or emptying into streams.  BMPs are designed to deal with the negative environmental impacts of stormwater runoff and provide protection from stormwater flooding. BMPs do this by regulating water quality, quantity, and timing by treating and/or detaining stormwater runoff.  The term BMP may be used to describe numerous structures and management actions. A few examples include retention and detention ponds, constructed wetlands, sand filters, rain gardens, rain barrels, vegetated areas along water bodies, and land management and education, such as street sweeping, septic system control, and proper pollutant disposal (e.g. fertilizers, pesticides, oil).  

Knowing the location, type, and effectiveness of stormwater BMPs is important to understanding the risk of adverse environmental impacts from urban land uses.  Therefore, this study focuses on mapping and interpreting the use of BMPs in selected study sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.  Spatial BMP and land use information is integrated with environmental stream and BMP data to elucidate patterns of land use and BMP utilization with environmental impacts.  This work currently focuses on the Clarksburg, MD Special Protection Area (SPA) to test how well older, verses newer, ?state of the art', BMP protocols are functioning, and is exploring the incorporation of other study areas.  In cooperation with numerous partners including EPA, Montgomery County Government, and University of Maryland, the USGS is in a position to provide information to decision makers and the public that is integral to restoring and maintaining water quality goals in local and regional watersheds.

A representative stormwater detention basin and sand filter being used for sediment control during construction in the Clarksburg, MD Special Protection Area study site.

A representative screenshot from the BMP and land use database for the Clarksburg, MD., Special Protection Area study site.

Web-based Geospatial Tools to Address Hazard Mitigation, Natural Resource Management, and other Societal Issues

Paul Hearn

phearn@usgs.gov

Eastern Geographic Science Center

http://erg.usgs.gov

Federal, State, and local government agencies in the U.S. face a broad range of issues on a daily basis.  Among these are natural hazard mitigation, homeland security, economic and community development, water supply, and health and safety services.  Increasingly, decision makers at all levels are challenged not by the lack of information, but by the absence of effective tools to synthesize the large volume of data available and utilize them to frame policy options in a straightforward and understandable manner. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies have been widely applied to this end, however systems with the necessary analytical power are still largely confined to workstations and are useable only by trained operators.  USGS's Eastern Geographic Science Center is addressing these needs by developing a suite of web-based GIS-based tools and applications that will bring USGS and cooperating partner data to bear on a variety of critical issues.

The Land Cover Analysis Tool (LCAT):
USGS's National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) is used widely by scientists and land managers to assess changes in land cover that affect water quality, wildlife habitat,  population distribution, carbon storage related to global climate change, and many other applications. The Land Cover Analysis Tool (LCAT) allows users to quickly locate, display, and download NLCD data,including the recently developed NLCD Change Product, which displays changes in land cover between 1992 and 2001. (http://lcat.usgs.gov).
LCAT allows users to clip, display, and download NLCD data using a variety of polygons, including State, county, city, and watershed boundaries, uploaded shapefiles, and also polygons defined by the user. Additional features include the ability to display individual land cover classes on top of user selected maps or imagery, and the ability to generate and print reports detailing the land cover composition within selected areas. User selected change pairs (e.g. forest to urban) can also be displayed on top of satellite imagery to better show areas of change. 

Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Memphis, Tennessee:
The City of Memphis and surrounding Shelby County lie within the New Madrid Seismic Zone (Figure 1), which extends from northeast Arkansas, through southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky to southern Illinois. Historically, this area has been the site of some of the largest earthquakes in North America. Earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.0 occurred in this area between 1811 and 1812.   

This area has been mapped by the USGS to assess the level of seismic hazard (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/index.php, and for this reason was chosen for an effort to evaluate the Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) a modeling, mapping, and risk communication tool that can assist public agencies and communities in understanding and reducing their natural-hazards vulnerability. (http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/lupm.html).
 
The LUPM builds upon financial-portfolio theory, a method for evaluating alternative investment choices based on the estimated distribution of risk and return from different investment possibilities. This conceptual model has been developed into an interactive, GIS-based decision support system (DSS) that stakeholders can use to select locations in which to invest a hazard mitigation budget, evaluate metrics such as the mean and variance of community wealth, and compare and rank policies. The model is unique in that it allows users to think through various levels of risk tolerance and hazard acceptability and allows users to compare the cost effectiveness of different policy alternatives.

Initial results from LUPM runs demonstrate the effect of earthquake probability estimates,  planning horizon, and the cost of mitigation on the return on hazard mitigation investments (Bernknopf et. al, 2007).  Also, the desktop version of LUPM is being modified to create a web-based version, which will provide managers and policy makers with a simplified interface to better understand how the model works and how it can benefit hazard mitigation policy analysis. 

Referenced cited:
Bernknopf, R.L., Hearn, P.P., Wein, A.M. & Strong, D. 2007, The Effect of Scientific and Socioeconomic Uncertainty on a Natural Hazards Policy Choice. International Congress on Modeling and Simulation - MODSIM07, Christchurch, New Zealand; 12-10-2007 - 12-13-2007; in: "Proceedings", (2007), ISBN: 978-09758400-4-7; 7 pages.

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